• 主管:

      天津市地质矿产勘查开发局

    • 主办:

      天津地热勘查开发设计院

    • ISSN

      1001-1412  CN 12-1131/P

    层次分析法和模糊综合评价法在地热勘查靶区优选中的应用研究

    Application Research of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method in the Selection of Target Areas for Geothermal Exploration

    • 摘要: 为精准圈定河南省中深层地热勘查有利靶区,本文运用层次分析法(AHP)与模糊综合评价法,构建了定性-定量耦合的地热勘查靶区优选评价体系。根据区域地热地质条件,以AHP为基本框架,将地质条件、热储特征、地温场特征及开发利用前景设为准则层,并细化为地层条件、构造作用、主要热储层埋深、井口出水温度、涌水量、盖层厚度、地温梯度、勘查规划及方向与可持续利用可能性等9项指标层要素,并分析计算各指标权重。进而引入模糊综合评价法,结合区域地热地质条件制定指标评分标准,完成评价模型的构建。以河南省中北部地区中深层地热勘查区为实例,对预选靶区开展综合量化评价,依据综合评分择优确定有利靶区。结果表明,Ⅰ2靶区得分最高,参数敏感性分析证实各靶区排序稳定;钻探验证结果与模型预测高度吻合,进一步证明了该方法在实际勘查中的有效性和适用性。

       

      Abstract: To accurately delineate favorable target areas for mid-deep geothermal exploration in Henan Province, this paper uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method to construct a qualitative-quantitative coupled evaluation system for prioritizing geothermal exploration targets. Based on regional geothermal geological conditions, AHP is used as the basic framework, setting geological conditions, thermal reservoir characteristics, geothermal field features, and prospects for development and utilization as criterion-level factors. These are further refined into nine indicator-level elements: stratigraphic conditions, tectonic activity, depth of the main reservoir layer, wellhead water temperature, water yield, caprock thickness, geothermal gradient, exploration planning and direction, and potential for sustainable utilization, and the weight of each indicator is analyzed and calculated. In addition, the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method is introduced, and indicator scoring standards are formulated according to regional geothermal geological conditions to complete the construction of the evaluation model. Taking the mid-deep geothermal exploration area in the north-central part of Henan Province as an example, a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the preselected target areas is carried out, and favorable target areas are selected based on the comprehensive scores. The results show that Target Area I2 scored the highest, and sensitivity analysis of parameters confirms the stability of the ranking of all target areas; drilling verification results are highly consistent with the model predictions, further demonstrating the effectiveness and applicability of this method in practical exploration.

       

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